Through agent-based simulations, we demonstrate that the key to designing an effective reopening strategy is a combination of rapid bulk testing and effective preventative measures such as mask wearing and social distancing. Infection rates are also shown to be negatively correlated with testing rates at the institutions. For example, infection rates at various institutions grow rapidly in certain months and this growth correlates positively with infection rates in counties where the universities are located. The parameter estimates from UIUC and other universities show similar trends. Using the estimated parameters, we finally conduct agent-based simulations with various model parameters to evaluate testing and reopening strategies. Next, we use data from the UIUC SHIELD program and 85 other universities to estimate parameters that describe the analytical model.
We develop an analytical model that takes into account the asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19, the effect of isolation via testing (both in bulk and through contact tracing) and the rate of contacts among people within and outside the institution. This work combines the power of analytical epidemic modeling, data analysis and agent-based simulations to derive policy insights. Specifically, we study how rapid bulk testing, contact tracing and preventative measures such as mask wearing, sanitization, and enforcement of social distancing can allow institutions to manage the epidemic spread. The research is motivated by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign’s (UIUC’s) SHIELD program, which is a set of policies and strategies, including rapid saliva-based COVID-19 screening, for ensuring safety of students, faculty and staff to conduct in-person operations, at least partially. In this paper, we explore strategies that such institutions can adopt to conduct safe reopening and resume operations during the pandemic. Many educational institutions have partially or fully closed all operations to cope with the challenges of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
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